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May 03, 2024

Idalia, Hurricane Franklin could impact Palm Beach County, Treasure Coast

Palm Beach County and the Treasure Coast are expected to slip mostly unscathed between two prodigious hurricanes as Idalia builds in the soupy Gulf of Mexico and Cat 4 Franklin froths southwest of

Palm Beach County and the Treasure Coast are expected to slip mostly unscathed between two prodigious hurricanes as Idalia builds in the soupy Gulf of Mexico and Cat 4 Franklin froths southwest of Bermuda.

Dangerous rip currents emboldened by the 145-mph Franklin along the southeast coast of the state and widespread rainfall of up to 2 inches through Thursday from Idalia were being forecast for Palm Beach, Martin, St. Lucie and Indian River counties.

"Entering the water is highly discouraged," Melbourne-based meteorologists for the National Weather Service wrote in their forecast Monday noting the uptick in long-period swells throughout the day from Franklin.

Some squally storms beginning Tuesday with lightning and embedded tornadoes are possible along the southeast coast, with gusts to gale force over Lake Okeechobee as Idalia sweeps northeast through the state over the next 60 hours. Landfall in the Big Bend region is forecast for early Wednesday as at least a Category 3 hurricane. Idalia is expected to be near Savannah, Georgia, late Wednesday.

A full moon at perigee — its closest approach to Earth in its orbit — on Wednesday may also exacerbate high tides along the southeast coast, but only minor flooding is forecast.

“Between Idalia and Franklin, impacts both along the Atlantic waters and potentially Lake Okeechobee will not be a lot of fun for mariners or beachgoers,” said Robert Garcia, a meteorologist with the National Weather Service office in Miami.

While tornado risks are higher in the Treasure Coast, Garcia said it is possible that Idalia's outer bands could spin one up Palm Beach County.

Last year, Hurricane Ian reached across the state to spin up three tornadoes, including an EF2 tornado with 125 mph winds that tore through Kings Point west of Delray Beach. “Hopefully we escape the worst of Idalia’s punch,” Garcia said. “Just don’t let your guard down.”

Gov. Ron DeSantis expanded Monday the number of counties under a state of emergency to 44 from 36, including areas from Bay County in the Panhandle to Collier County on the southwest coast. Palm Beach County and the Treasure Coast were not included in the declaration.

2023 hurricane season:Fear rain as much as storm surge as climate change increases threat

By midday Monday, several west coast counties were closing schools and opening shelters.

As of 2 p.m., Tropical Storm Idalia had sustained winds of 70 mph and was about 50 miles south-southwest of the western tip of Cuba. It was moving north at 8 mph.

A hurricane warning painted the west coast of the state from the middle of Longboat Key north to the Ochlockonee River, including Tampa Bay. A tropical storm warning was issued from Chokoloskee northward to the middle of Longboat Key and from west of the Lockheed River to Indian Pass.

A storm surge warning was issued from Englewood north to the Ochlockonee River, with peak surges of up to 11 feet in the Big Bend region from Chassahowitzka to the Aucilla River.

Bryan Norcross, hurricane specialist for Fox Weather, said the peak wind and storm surge will likely reach the west coast early Wednesday morning, possibly before sunrise.

“If that happens, many neighborhoods around the bays and rivers and near the beaches will be covered,” Norcross wrote in his forecast. “As we saw last year with Hurricane Ian, the storm surge predictions can and often do change as the storm gets closer and the forecast becomes more certain.”

As of early Monday, the storm surge forecast for Tampa Bay was 4 to 7 feet.

More:Hurricane Ian underwent an eyewall change, turning a disheveled mess into a monster

While Idalia’s track has remained mostly the same since it became a tropical storm early Sunday, with the cone reaching from Clearwater to St. James Island, that could change as it begins moving into the Gulf of Mexico, Norcross said.

National Weather Service offices throughout Florida began sending up additional weather balloons on Sunday to get more data for the models forecasting Idalia.

And hurricane and storm surge expert Michael Lowry noted in his forecast that the cone does not reflect the extent of the storm’s reach, only where the center of the storm may go. As of Monday morning, tropical storm-force winds extended 105 miles from Idalia’s center.

“Idalia is shaping up to be a potentially devastating and historic hurricane hit for Florida’s Gulf Coast,” said Lowry, who is with Miami's ABC affiliate Channel 10. “Don’t let the slow movement over the weekend fool you.”

Kimberly Miller is a veteran journalist for The Palm Beach Post, part of the USA Today Network of Florida. She covers real estate and how growth affects South Florida's environment. Subscribe to The Dirt for a weekly real estate roundup. If you have news tips, please send them to [email protected]. Help support our local journalism, subscribe today.